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2020 Warning van Ingo Piepers, Ingo

Social integration and expansion in anarchistic systems: how connectivity and our urge to survive determine and shape the war dynamics and development of the system In this study, complexity and network science are applied to the dynamics and development of the (International) System. The study provides fundamentally new insights in the workings of the System. This study shows that the System periodically becomes critical, and produces 'systemic wars'. The typical dynamics that are revealed in this study are a consequence of physical laws that apply to the System. Systemic wars are instrumental in rebalancing the System, and in periodically producing 'upgraded' international orders, that allow for further growth and development. The patterns that can be observed in the war dynamics of the System, make it possible to predict these dynamics and the System's direction of development. Data-analysis shows that the System will again become critical around 2020. This study shows that intensifying war dynamics pose an existential threat to humankind: (systemic) wars will cause increasing damage and suffering and will put our climate system at (additional) risk. Fundamental change is a prerequisite for our survival.

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